The Brexit negotiations with European Union leaders have “turned out to be a roller-coaster ride” which is not worth the risk, according to the Economists for Free Trade association led by macroeconomist Sir Patrick Minford.
In a new report it argued the best solution for the UK would be to embrace entirely World Trade Organisation regulations and leave the EU without a deal.
The report said: “This involves ending the government’s current obsession with agreeing an EU trade deal - at any cost – and embracing trading with the non-EU world under World Trade Organisation Rules, as we already do with some 60 percent of our world trade, for example the US, Japan, Australia, and most of the rest of the world.”
According to Sir Patrick, the UK will only get a better deal if the EU changes its attitude.
Unless the EU changes its tune substantially, any EU trade deal on offer looks as if it will be thoroughly inferior to this WTO Free Trade OptionSir Patrick Minford
He said: “Unless the EU changes its tune substantially, any EU trade deal on offer looks as if it will be thoroughly inferior to this WTO Free Trade Option.”
Sir Patrick argued the WTO option would provide the British Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with a four percent gain.
The factors he considered for his analysis are the costs of customs, the cost of trading within the EU, the gain from new free trade agreements with the world and the costs of changing trade standards, which represent the legislation enforce to protect consumers in a country.
On top of this gain, Sir Patrick also said an exit from the EU without any agreement would provide the UK with a further seven percent GDP gain within the next 15 years “when all elements of Brexit are put into the mix”, including a clamp down on immigration and a series of free trade agreements with the rest of the world.
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He added: “A sober economic analysis shows that the option based on WTO rules not only brings us substantial gains from free trade, as well as control of our laws and borders, but it also implies the very opposite of chaos.
“And most importantly of all, it can be implemented without any assistance from a plainly uncooperative EU.”
Roberto Azevedo, director general of the WTO, supported the idea of a no-deal Brexit.
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He said: “About half of the UK’s trade is already on WTO terms with the US, China and several large emerging nations where the EU doesn’t have trade agreements.
“So it’s not the end of the world if the UK trades under WTO rules with the EU, it’s not like trade between the UK and EU is going to stop.
“There will be an impact, but I suppose it is perfectly manageable.” RSS feed from The Express
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We could put more Brexiteers on the streets than remainers. So they are wasting their time.
ReplyDeleteAt some point in the near future, all these sundry opinions will be tested by reality! So far, we have only had one opinion after another- but little action! So, really nothing but biased noise from the many vested interests involved!
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I am utterly bored by the time being wasted by all the games being played out before the eyes of the world- both at Westminster and in Brussels- and I don't think I'm alone, either! Do I think the end of the world is nigh as Remainers would have us believe, post Brexit? No, I don't! On the other hand, do I believe we will enter a promised land of Milk and Honey, after Brexit? No, I don't- because almost certainly, neither are true- despite the heady rhetoric and fervour with which such opinions are proclaimed! Instead, something else will happen- as all pick their way through the mess that the politicians have created!
But what I do know is that the amount of bad feeling and distrust now being created during these toxic negotiations, will surely bedevil our relations with the EU, for years to come! Neither side will gain from all this political posturing- and it needs to stop right now! Unless it does so, that will do more to undermine future relations than any trade deal which may be struck between the EU and the UK!
We all know what should happen at Brexit- its what most people want to happen, too- but whether it will happen is down to two very simple things: the actual politics of the break-up; and, possibly more important, the over-sized egos of those involved! To me, what is the most terrifying thing is that the future of our relationship with the EU will not hang on what could be, but rather on the failure of its politicians to accept what is about to become a new reality- that their fear, will bedevil everyone's future!